Notes
Everything I've written, newest first. Filter by what you came for.
7 Sept 2026Trade IdeasWhy Does a 0% Bond Cost So Much?Cloudflare raised $2.5bn at a 0% coupon. Split the notes into a bond and an option, and investors paid 100 for something worth about 95.6.8 min19 Aug 2026Rates & MacroThe Stem Beneath the FlowerThe long end of the bond market has been supported for two decades. As that support fades, markets are discovering what it really costs to keep the flower standing.5 min5 Aug 2026CreditWhat your Gym Membership Can Teach Us About Modern FinanceAcross structured credit, investors are increasingly lending against predictable human behaviour rather than hard assets, a shift that may reshape how AI businesses are financed.5 min30 Jul 2026CreditWhen the Gale Changes CourseHow AI has shifted creative destruction 4 min22 Jul 2026CreditLending Against Obsolescence From Bricks to Chips: Why Credit Markets are Lending Against GPUs4 min14 Jul 2026Rates & MacroCould a Railway Change the Price of War?Could Hormuz eventually become a regional security story rather than a global macro story?5 min7 Jul 2026Private CreditThe Gilded Age of Private CreditPrivate credit has created its own Gilded Age: an industry admired for its stability and returns, but where the appearance of simplicity may conceal a more complex web of leverage.4 min2 Jul 2026Trade IdeasBrazil's Winning FormationWhy the 2–5 Year Bonds Control the Game3 min26 Jun 2026Rates & MacroSuper El Niño: The Yield Curve’s Hero or Inflation’s Villain?Could climate change become a structural source of inflation? 3 min23 Jun 2026Rates & MacroA Clear Picture of the Wrong ProblemThe UK's new bond market transparency programme arrives just in time to give investors a clearer view of why they shouldn't be buying2 min16 Jun 2026New IssuesTech Giants and the New Logic of Bond IssuanceExamining the strategic surge in bond issuance among tech giants amid higher-for-longer interest rates and unprecedented AI investment demands3 min9 Jun 2026Private CreditThe Price of Opacity in Private CreditPrivate credit's booming but are investors paid for opacity risk, not just credit risk? 2 min
