Bond Notes

The Basis Point

Bond markets are the most honest real-time read on the economy. I write these notes to work out what the market is pricing in, and what it might be missing.

Notes

I write bond notes about rates & macro

View all notes →
The curve

US Treasury yield curve · 1Y → 30Y · updated daily

As of 14 Aug 2026 · source: Treasury
3.6%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%5.0%5.2%5.4%5.6%Yield (%)1Y2Y3Y5Y7Y10Y20Y30YMaturity
About

Hi, I'm Nathalie, a recent graduate from the London School of Economics with a BSc in Economics and Social Policy, and passed the CFA Level I exam earlier this year. That's where the habit of writing this kind of thing started. During my degree I worked as a Summer Analyst at J.P. Morgan's Global Private Bank.

What I keep coming back to are bonds. The way rates, inflation expectations, and central bank credibility interact with macro fundamentals always has its own story to tell, and bond markets tend to be one of the more honest real-time reads on the economic outlook.

I write a note whenever something in the market is worth thinking through properly, to put what I'm reading into my own words and keep a record of how my thinking shifts as the data does.

Projects

Things I’m building

Little Miss London Jewellery
Back soon

Little Miss London Jewellery

The jewellery label I founded as a teenager — currently rebuilding. New site dropping later this year.

littlemisslondonjewellery.com
Get in touch

Email is the best way to reach me — I read everything that comes in.

LinkedInlinkedin.com/in/nathalielustig